Fast and firm for the big Saturday card, but there is rain in forecast late in the day so keep a close eye on on the track conditions prior to the Derby.  Decent day yesterday with 7 winners listed, 3 on top (with a flat bet profit) and a $185 pick 3, so I will try and keep it up today.  Rooting against Chad Brown’s horses, so if he has a big day, I’m screwed!

In race 7, The Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, Procter’s Ledge (#3) ran great in return and has faced some of the best competition around and held her own — likes this track and will be flying late at a decent price.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 6 and 9.

In race 11, The Grade 1 Turf classic, Synchrony (#9) ran 3rd in this race last year and just missed against the favorite in last and adds blinkers for the money run at a decent price — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 1 and 12.

In race 12, The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, By My Standards (#3) is rapidly improving off Louisiana Derby win, can sit 5 lengths off a decent pace and get a great inside trip to post the upset at 12-1 or so — I am using him and Game Winner (#16) who ran his best race here at Churchill on top with #’s 6, 5, 8, 7 and 17 in my exactas, trifectas and supers!  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 3, 4 and 2

Race 2: 4, 6 and 1A

Race 3: 4, 1 and 6

Race 4: 2, 9 and 4

Race 5: 2, 6 and 12

Race 6: 7, 6 and 5

Race 7: 3 (Best Bet) with 6 and 9

Race 8: 7 (Best Bet) with 6 and 1

Race 9: 2 (Best Bet) with 5 and 1

Race 10: 14, 10 and 11

Race 11: 9 (Best Bet) with 1 and 12

Race 12: 3, 16 with 5, 6, 7, 8 and 17

Race 13: 6, 1 and 10

Race 14: 7, 1 and 2

Sloppy and good with races 1 and 4 off the turf — the weather may be a big problem this weekend with more rain in the forecast on Derby Day, but still great days of racing ahead so let’s make the best of it!

In race 8, The Grade 1 La Troien, Blue Prize (#2) has knocked heads with the best of her generation and now gets a favorable post on a track she loves — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 3 and 1.

In race 13, Aymara (#11) goes turf to dirt and cuts back to sprint off a promising turf debut — Mott knows what he’s doing and puts blinkers on to get her in the race sooner — key in all late multi-race wagers and play an exacta box with #’s 5 and 8.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 7, 3 and 1

Race 2: 5 (Best Bet) with 2 and 3

Race 3: 9, 6 and 4

Race 4: 19, 10 and 6

Race 5: 6 (Best Bet) with 3 and 9

Race 6: 5, 1 and 2

Race 7: 1, 6 and 2

Race 8: 2 (Best Bet) with 3 and 1

Race 9: 7 (Best Bet) with 5 and 15

Race 10: 7, 6 and 9

Race 11: 2, 14 and 4

Race 12: 8, 11 and 3

Race 13: 11 (Best Bet) with 5 and 8

Fast and good for BC Classic Day — not a very good day yesterday until the last race with front runners really dominating on turf and dirt.  Watch early for any biases today — although with drying out conditions the track may be a little more fair.  Breeders Cup races could be chalky, so try and concentrate on races that will offer some value and bet accordingly.

In race 4, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, Rainbow Heir (#6) is one of 3 trained by Jason Servis who may be the best turf sprint trainer in the county and comeback race was a good tightener and should be close enough to a brutal pace to have a chance to run them down at a great price — play across the board and use in multi-race wagers, plus an exacta box with #’s 8 and 11.

In race 11, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic, West Coast (#7) needed last and should be sitting on a big race for Baffert — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 4 and 14.

For a betting strategy, I think Marley’s Freedom (#13) in race 3, The Filly & Mare Sprint, is the most likely winner, so single in those multi-race bets and I have a feeling that Gunnevera  (#4) is sitting on a big race in the Classic and will be a great price.   Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 5, 6 and 1

Race 2: 11, 3 and 12

Race 3: 13 (Best Bet) with 5 and 1

Race 4: 6 (Best Bet) with 8 and 11

Race 5: 6, 1 and 10

Race 6: 3, 10 and 1

Race 7: 5, 8 and 9

Race 8: 7, 11 and 2

Race 9: 11, 1 and 2

Race 10: 12, 2 and 4

Race 11: 7, (Best Bet) with 4 and 14

Race 12: 6, 3 and 7

Good and yielding for Future Stars Friday at The Breeders Cup — Churchill Downs has been good to me in the past, so I am optimistic about the next two days, but the turf course took a lot of rain over the last two days so it’s hard to say who will like the going.  Also, there was a clear speed bias yesterday on the main track, but a drying out track today may be a different story so pay attention to changing track conditions.

In race 7, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, Restless Rider (#4) loves Churchill and should benefit from all speed and another two-turn affair to run these down from a perfect stalking position — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 10 and 5.

In race 6, The Grade 1 Juvenile Fillies Turf, Concrete Rose (#1) got the cozy rail, has positional speed to sit a good trip and will be a much better price than she should be because of the Chad Brown heavy favorite — may be this good.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 6 and 5.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 6, 5 and 3

Race 2: 8, 9 and 2

Race 3: 6, 4 and 2

Race 4: 8, 3 and 2

Race 5: 8, 4 and 5

Race 6: 1 (Best Bet) with 6 and 5

Race 7: 4 (Best Bet) with 10 and 5

Race 8: 4, 6 and 12

Race 9: 1, 6 and 9

Race 10: 10 (Best Bet) with 7 and 2