Churchill

“Gunning” For A Derby Victory At Churchill (5/6/17)

May 6th, 2017 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks, Triple Crown

Sloppy and good for Derby Day at Churchill — there should be some additional showers today, but all races should remain on the turf and the track may dry out a little, but still be wet for the big race so play accordingly. I’ve noticed a pattern at Churchill when it’s wet — early in the day speed is really good on the dirt and later the closers can run if there is a decent pace.  I will try that strategy today and want to improve on yesterday’s picks when I only had 3 winners on top and my second choice won the Oaks at a big price, so let’s see how I do today!

In race 12, The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Gunnevera (#10) had absolutely no chance as the favorite in the Florida Derby with a moderate pace and wide post — he will be flying late today with a clean trip and a decent pace today and should handle the track.  If you can get 10-1, that would be an overlay in my mind, so I will be betting across the board and then playing exotics with #’s 5, 8, 15 and 20.  I will be using McCracken (#15) on top in some exotics as well, since he needed his last race and loves Churchill, so if either of my top two choices win, I could be in good shape.  Patch (#20) is my longshot play to hit the number – wish it wasn’t post 20, but the value will be there!!

In race 7, The Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, Roca Rojo (#6) loves a soft turf course and should be flying late to get the money as the second choice to Miss Temple City (#2) who may not be at best on this type of course — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 1 and 2.   Here’s the entire card and good luck to everyone!

Race 1: 3, 8 and 6

Race 2: 2, 6 and 4

Race 3: 3 (Best Bet) with 7 and 4

Race 4: 1, 6 and 5

Race 5: 1, 5 and 10

Race 6: 6, 7 and 2

Race 7: 6 (Best Bet) with 1 and 2

Race 8: 5 with 11 and 8

Race 9: 10, 7 and 4

Race 10: 8, 2 and 1

Race 11: 5 with 1 and 2

Race 12: 10 (Best Bet) with 15, 5, 20 and 8

Race 13: 9, 1 and 8

Race 14: 4, 14 and 11



Passing The “Salt” In The Oaks At Churchill (5/5/17)

May 5th, 2017 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks

Sloppy and good for the Oaks card at Churchill — a great card, but pay attention to the turf races which are currently on, but weather will be wet so if they are taken off, I will have to make changes to those races.  Big day tomorrow also, which could be wet as well, so see if there are any biases today that may carry over to Derby Day!

In race 11, The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, Salty (#14) gets tough post, but has shown a great closing kick at Gulfstream in first 3 races and may love it here and run them down late if able to get a good trip — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 13 and 4

In race 6, The Grade 2 Alysheba, Honorable Duty (#4) gets a wicked pace to set up late run and will be a nice price — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 6 and 9.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 6, 3 and 1

Race 2: 2, 1 and 4

Race 3: 2 (Best Bet) with 5 and 3

Race 4: 7, 4 and 8

Race 5: 4 with 8 and 1

Race 6: 4 (Best Bet) with 8 and 1

Race 7: 12 with 8 and 3

Race 8: 9, 10 and 4

Race 9: 7, 12 and 1

Race 10: 6, 7 and 4

Race 11: 14 (Best Bet) with 13 and 4

Race 12: 4, 8 and 7

Race 13: 4 with 10 and 11



Going “Freestyle” On Derby Day At Churchill (5/7/16)

May 7th, 2016 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks, Triple Crown

Fast and firm for Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill with a tremendous 14 race card that will give nightmares to handicappers everywhere.  It doesn’t help that I didn’t exactly set the world on fire during the Kentucky Oaks card with only 3 short prices winners on top and no best bet winners, so let’s see if I can do better today.

In race 5, Freestyle (#10) gets tricky outside post, but gets class relief and should get a perfect stalking trip — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 3 and 2.

In race 11, The Grade 1 Turf Classic, Grand Tito (#1) is in great form and should sit right off the leaders and make a late run — the price will be right for an upset!  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 8 and 11.

In race 13, Uncle Walter (#7) drops from stakes company and the cutback to sprint should be perfect to score — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 6 and 5.

In race 12, The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, there seems to be few speed types and many closers, which may favor the front runners.  But most of the speed drew outside, so maybe the pace will be in the 46 and change range, which might favor horses that can finish and the prices will be right to try and defeat Nyquist today.  I am keying two horses on top: My Man Sam (#6) who may have the most upside and acts like he will love the distance and Mohaymen (#14) whose Florida Derby was an abomination and who will be in perfect stalking position at a much better price.  I will use #’s 5, 11, 13 and 19 to round out my exactas, trifectas and superfectas, plus play across the board on #6 who might be 20-1.  Good luck to all and here is the entire card!

Race 1: 4, 5 and 2

Race 2: 8. 1 and 3

Race 3: 11, 10 and 1

Race 4: 7, 6 and 1

Race 5: 10 (Best Bet) with 3 and 2

Race 6: 9, 1 and 4

Race 7: 1 with 6 and 8

Race 8: 10 with 8 and 2

Race 9: 1, 3 and 9

Race 10: 7, 10 and 12

Race 11: 1 (Best Bet) with 8 and 11

Race 12: 6 and 14 with 5, 11, 13 and 19

Race 13: 7 (Best Bet) with 6 and 5

Race 14: 7, 4 and 6



It’s A “Go” For The Kentucky Oaks At Churchill (5/6/16)

May 6th, 2016 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks

Fast and firm for the Friday card at Churchill — the weekend of racing looks as incredible as the weather forecast, so let’s see how I do today with a very difficult handicapping challenge ahead of me!

In race 11, The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, Go Maggie Go (#4) is lightly raced and although 2 for 2, gets the acid test for class today — may be this good,  should get a perfect stalking trip and the price will be right.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 11 and 2.

In race 10, The Grade 3 Edgewood, Outsider Art (#7) was closing fast in last against her top rivals and gets a fast pace and an extra 1/16th to turn the tables at a big price — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 1 and 10.

In race 8, The Grade 3 Turf Sprint, Summation Time (#2) was hard luck 4th in last against Something Extra (#11) – cut back to 5 furlongs and inside post don’t help, but the pace will be brutal and a clean trip could lead to a last second victory at a decent price.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 11 and 7.  Here’s the entire card and good luck today and with the Derby tomorrow!

Race 1: 3, 7 and 8

Race 2: 9 with 8 and 2

Race 3: 1, 3 and 5

Race 4: 5, 7 and 2

Race 5: 8, 2 and 7

Race 6: 5, 2 and 1

Race 7: 7, 5 and 8

Race 8: 2 (Best Bet) with 11 and 7

Race 9: 4, 5 and 3

Race 10: 7 (Best Bet) with 1 and 10

Race 11: 4 (Best Bet) with 11 and 2

Race 12: 5, 12 and 2

Race 13: 6, 10 and 1