Fast and firm at Churchill after a wild day on Friday where longshots were the norm and handicappers around the country scratched their heads and wondered what the hell was going on.  But, below the surface, it was a pretty simple formula for success — avoid the Europeans on real dirt and hard turf and pay extra attention to those runners who have a real taste for the land of the “twin spires.”  I had one nice winner in the Marathon which gave me a flat bet profit on the day and had a great exacta and triple box in the Juvenille Turf. Let’s talk about today!

In race 11, The Classic, Blame (#5) loves the local track and gets a great pace scenario to set up a run from 5 lengths off the lead to take this great race.  I’m keying in all doubles and pick 3′s and playing an exacta box with #’s 1 and 7.  Zenyatta may be too far back on this track to factor late!

In race 5, The Sprint, Riley Tucker (#10) does his best running on this track and can get a great stalking trip from this post just like Dubai Majesty got yesterday — I’m playing across the board, keying in all doubles and pick 3′s and playing an exacta box with #’s 1 and 12.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 6 and 8

Race 2: 7 and 2

Race 3: 8 with 10 and 5

Race 4: 9 with 8 and 4

Race 5: 10 (Best Bet) with 1 and 12

Race 6: 5 with 11 and 2

Race 7: 7 with 10 and 2

Race 8: 4, 7 and 10

Race 9: 6 with 5 and 12

Race 10: 5 and 3

Race 11: 5(Best Bet) with 1 and 7

Fast and firm on the biggest weekend of racing we have in the states.  The races at Churchill are very competitive and, as a handicapper, you want to have a real strategy for analyzing the races.  I look for 4 specific things when making my selections:

1. Does the race flow favor speed horses or closers

2. Has the horse run well on traditional dirt and especially at Churchill

3. Is the horse coming into the race in top form and can I get a price

4. Does the horse have connections that know how to win BC races

In the first few days of the Churchill meet, speed seems to be doing well on dirt when they go one turn and closers seem to be doing well on turf.  Please keep a close eye out to see if there are any biases and play accordingly.

In race 7, The Filly&Mare Sprint, Sara Louise (#2) is working well for second start off a long layoff, has raced beautifully at Churchill and should appreciate 7 furlongs to set up late run.  Has the class to stay closer to the pace today, which will be critical with the scratch of Rightly So (#13).  I’m playing a big bet across the board, keying in all doubles and pick 3′s and playing her up and down with #’s 5 and 9.

In race 8, The Juvenille Fillies, Tell A Kelly (#12) gets a horrible post and has never run on real dirt. But the filly is working well at Churchill, has run very well in every race and handled two turns with ease last time which set her up perfectly for this with a decent amount of speed in the race to set up a late run.  I’m playing her across the board, in doubles and pick 3′s and up and down in exactas with #’s 3, 6 and 8.

In race 6, The Juvenille Filles Turf, Winter Memories (#7) has handled two turns on turf with ease and has the blood to be a really good one — could be the best bet all day but will be a short price.  I’m keying in all doubles and pick 3′s and playing her up and down in exactas with #’s 4 and 11.  Here’e the entire card, good luck and I hope the Hall & Oates reference made you smile!

Race 1: 8 and 6

Race 2: 3 and 1

Race 3: 6 and 2

Race 4: 5 and 4

Race 5: 4, 9 and 11

Race 6: 7 (Best Bet) with 4 and 11

Race 7: 2 (Best Bet) with 5 and 9

Race 8: 12 (Best Bet) with 3, 6 and 8

Race 9: 1 and 7

Race 10: 6 and 10

Another beautiful day at Santa Anita for day 2 of the Breeders Cup.  Yesterday I had one sunny moment and one tough beat in a very competitive card.  In race 5, The Juvenille Fillies, listed the exacta box for $144 and the triple box for $814.  In race 3, The Marathon, my best bet Cloudy’s Night took a clear lead in mid-stretch and just got beat by a nose at 8-1…oh well, let’s be a little luckier and a bit smarter on today’s card.

In race 9, the wide open Breeders Cup Classic, use your head and take advantage of Zenyatta’s favoritism to find real live alternatives at great prices.  Einstein (#8) loves this track, has been freshened for the race and can be close to a slower pace and run down the leaders in mid stretch and hold off the closers.  I’m boxing him with Richard’s Kid (#6) and Summer Bird (#3), making a big place and show bet and using all my picks in doubles and pick 3′s.

In race 3, the totally unpredictable BC Turf Sprint, Noble Court (#1) gets the nod to run down California Flag (#3) in the late stages of the race. I’m throwing in live longshot Square Eddie (#8) in an exacta box and playing him up and down with the rest of the field. I’ll use my top two choices in doubles and pick 3′s.

In race 2, The BC Juvenile Turf, Interactif (#11) gets a wide post but has been extremely impressive in last two turf starts — I’m boxing him with Codoy (#3) and Pounced (#4) and keying in doubles and pick 3′s.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 1, 7 and 3

Race 2: 11 (Best Bet) with 3 and 4

Race 3: 1 (Best Bet) with 3 and 8

Race 4: 8, 3 and 5

Race 5: 9 with 6 and 10

Race 6: 3 and 11

Race 7: 8, 3 and 1

Race 8: 6, 5 and 7

Race 9: 8 (Best Bet), 6 and 3

Race 10: 9, 7 and 1

What a great weekend of racing coming up at Santa Anita!  The best horses in the world are running in the Breeders Cup and the best handicappers in the country are trying to make sense of it all!  I hope to be up to the challenge.

In race 3, The Breeders Cup Marathon at 1 3/4 miles, trainer Jonathan Sheppard has 9 year old Cloudy’s Night (#4) in great form, the distance and synthetic track should be no problem and there is enough speed in the race to set up his late kick.  I’m playing an exacta box with Muhannak (#2) and Mastery (#6) and keying in all doubles and pick 3′s.

In race 4, The Juvenile Turf, Smart Seattle (#3) gets back on turf and the mile distance may be perfect for her to get a good stalking trip and hold off Hatheer (#9) and House of Grace (#7).  I’m playing an exacta box and keying her in doubles and pick 3′s.

In race 7, The Sprint, Ventura (#9) and Informed Decision (#7) will be the heavy choices and figure to run well.  But in a race devoid of speed, Seventh Street (#8) can stay close and 7 furlongs may be just her thing and you know Bin Suroor will win at least one BC race.  I will play an exacta box and use her in doubles and pick 3′s.

Overall, you are probably better off playing horses who have run well on the track and have connections that have done well on Breeders Cup day.  However, keep on mind that speed may be a premium in some of the turf races and you will see that I picked some longshots.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 4 with 7 and 9

Race 2: 7, 5 and 9

Race 3: 4 (Best Bet) with 2 and 6

Race 4: 3 (Best Bet) with 9 and 7

Race 5: 3 with 4 and 8

Race 6: 7, 4 and 1

Race 7: 8 (Best Bet) with 9 and 7

Race 8: 1 and 6

Race 9: 6, 9 and 11