Breeders Cup

Connecting To “Rainbow”On Breeders Cup Day 2 At Churchill (11/3/18)

Nov 3rd, 2018 | By | Category: Breeders Cup, Churchill, Today's Picks

Fast and good for BC Classic Day — not a very good day yesterday until the last race with front runners really dominating on turf and dirt.  Watch early for any biases today — although with drying out conditions the track may be a little more fair.  Breeders Cup races could be chalky, so try and concentrate on races that will offer some value and bet accordingly.

In race 4, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, Rainbow Heir (#6) is one of 3 trained by Jason Servis who may be the best turf sprint trainer in the county and comeback race was a good tightener and should be close enough to a brutal pace to have a chance to run them down at a great price — play across the board and use in multi-race wagers, plus an exacta box with #’s 8 and 11.

In race 11, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic, West Coast (#7) needed last and should be sitting on a big race for Baffert — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 4 and 14.

For a betting strategy, I think Marley’s Freedom (#13) in race 3, The Filly & Mare Sprint, is the most likely winner, so single in those multi-race bets and I have a feeling that Gunnevera  (#4) is sitting on a big race in the Classic and will be a great price.   Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 5, 6 and 1

Race 2: 11, 3 and 12

Race 3: 13 (Best Bet) with 5 and 1

Race 4: 6 (Best Bet) with 8 and 11

Race 5: 6, 1 and 10

Race 6: 3, 10 and 1

Race 7: 5, 8 and 9

Race 8: 7, 11 and 2

Race 9: 11, 1 and 2

Race 10: 12, 2 and 4

Race 11: 7, (Best Bet) with 4 and 14

Race 12: 6, 3 and 7



Feeling “Restless” On Day 1 Of Breeders Cup At Churchill (11/2/18)

Nov 2nd, 2018 | By | Category: Breeders Cup, Churchill, Today's Picks

Good and yielding for Future Stars Friday at The Breeders Cup — Churchill Downs has been good to me in the past, so I am optimistic about the next two days, but the turf course took a lot of rain over the last two days so it’s hard to say who will like the going.  Also, there was a clear speed bias yesterday on the main track, but a drying out track today may be a different story so pay attention to changing track conditions.

In race 7, The Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, Restless Rider (#4) loves Churchill and should benefit from all speed and another two-turn affair to run these down from a perfect stalking position — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 10 and 5.

In race 6, The Grade 1 Juvenile Fillies Turf, Concrete Rose (#1) got the cozy rail, has positional speed to sit a good trip and will be a much better price than she should be because of the Chad Brown heavy favorite — may be this good.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 6 and 5.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 6, 5 and 3

Race 2: 8, 9 and 2

Race 3: 6, 4 and 2

Race 4: 8, 3 and 2

Race 5: 8, 4 and 5

Race 6: 1 (Best Bet) with 6 and 5

Race 7: 4 (Best Bet) with 10 and 5

Race 8: 4, 6 and 12

Race 9: 1, 6 and 9

Race 10: 10 (Best Bet) with 7 and 2



The Biggest Handicapping Headlines From The 2017 Breeders Cup (BC) Are In “The Headlines” (11/5/17)

Nov 5th, 2017 | By | Category: Breeders Cup, Today's Picks

Another day after the Breeders Cup to sit here and digest all the things that happened over the last two days.  The great performances from Gun Runner and Forever Unbridled which reinforced their emergence as the best of their generation; the mystifying performances of the Euros whose favorites barely lifted a hoof and whose long shots surprised us and wreaked havoc on handicappers everywhere; the resounding disappointment of West Coast darlings Unique Bella and Defrong who finished way up the track and a reminded us that the “graveyard of favorites” is not limited to Saratoga; the unbridled exuberance of trainer Peter Miller who scored with his first and second Breeders Cup winners;  the bewildered and humbled Bob Baffert who still can’t explain why Arrogate fell off a cliff; and finally, a $135 winner in the Filly and Mare Turf that was truly worth “a bar of gold!”

It seems so many surprises are the norm almost every year during the Breeders Cup and the challenges for me and my fellow handicappers easily highlight our ignorance and ineptitude.  But throughout everything, I discovered the one thing that has remained consistent for me over the last 9 years of handicapping the Breeders Cup and posting on horsepicking.com. My headlines are the story because my best bet for each day of the BC has been winning at a tremendous rate and those picks have been extremely profitable.  Even though I only went 5 for 22 over on Friday and Saturday, my headline best bets both won: Rushing Fall paid $8.00 and World Approval $7.40.  Over the last 9 years, I have had 18 horses mentioned in my headline and 7 of them won (41%) and the ROI has been $2.85 for those picks!  My strategy is always making big bets on my best bets of the day and it has paid great dividends in the BC!  In fact, all picks listed as best bets have won 12 out of 51 times with a nice flat bet profit!  So, I hope that all my readers whom have been so supportive over the years may have profited a little by my best bet picks — even when the overall days may have been difficult!  If you decide to look at past posts, take a look at my picks over the years for the Classic — very proud of those selections!

Just wanted to wish everyone a great holiday season and I look forward to posting every weekend as usual and hope my headlines keep paying off!



Giving My “Approval” On Day 2 Of Breeders Cup At Del Mar (11/4/17)

Nov 4th, 2017 | By | Category: Breeders Cup, Today's Picks

Fast and firm for Day 2 of the Breeders Cup — not a bad day yesterday with 3 winners on top, including my best bet, and a flat bet profit.  Also had a nice pick 3 to end the day — remember that the main track is still favoring speed and the turf course is playing fairly, so play accordingly.  Forever Unbridled’s win in the Distaff was by far the best performance of the day because she did it against the bias with a sweeping move on the turn — I picked her on top but she would have been a best bet if the bias wasn’t on my mind.  I guess the message today is that class will prevail despite the bias!  A great undercard as well, so let’s see how I do today!

In race 9, The Grade 1 BC Mile, World Approval (#5) has found his calling with his turnback to a flat mile and he can sit right behind a brutal pace and get the jump on the closers — anything in the 4-1 range is a great price.  Key in all doubles, pick 3′s and pick 4 and play an exacta box with #’s 10, 7 and 8.

In race 6, The Grade 1 BC Filly & Mare Sprint, Skye Diamonds (#12) is perfect on the local surface, has a great stalking style from perfect post to run these down — trainer won Sprint with my best bet Amazombie in 2011 and Unique Bella will be a short price so I will get 5-1!.    Key in all multi-race wagers and play an exacta box with #’s 11 and 10.

Just a word on the Classic — if Gun Runner (#5) keeps his current form, he will win this.  If they go very fast early, maybe Mubtaahij (#6) can pick up some pieces at a price.  Don’t think this is Arrogate’s best surface.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!!!!

Race 1: 7 (Best Bet) with 10 and 6

Race 2: 2 with 6 and 1

Race 3: 3 with 4 and 10

Race 4: 8, 7 and 9

Race 5: 2, 1 and 3

Race 6: 12 (Best Bet) with 11 and 10

Race 7: 12, 10 and 9

Race 8: 6, 9 and 2

Race 9: 5 (Best Bet) with 10, 7 and 8

Race 10: 11 (Best Bet) with 5 and 2

Race 11: 13, 3, and 12

Race 12: 6, 5 11 and 1