“Lewis” Makes Me Smile On Derby Day At Churchill (5/5/18)

May 5th, 2018 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks, Triple Crown

Fast and firm for the great 14 race Derby card, but there are showers in the forecast so beware of changes in track conditions (especially if any races are taken off the turf).  A very good day yesterday with 5 winners on top (including a $26.20 best bet) which made overall win bets and best bets very profitable.  Had a nice run of 3 huge pick 3′s from races 4-8, so I will try and keep up the momentum today.

In race 6, The Grade 1 Humana Distaff, Lewis Bay (#5) probably needed last when beaten by the #1, but will sit a perfect trip here right behind a speed duel and some moisture in the track will even help — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 1 and 4.

In race 10, The Grade 3 Pat Day Mile, Restoring Hope (#12) cuts back and may be best as a one turn closer in a race packed with speed — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 5 and 8.

In race 12, The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, my betting strategy is the same — find two horses to key on top with 5 horses underneath in all exotic wagers.  While Justify (#7) is a worthy favorite and should get a good trip, he is lightly raced and may have more speed to battle today which is why I like both Bolt d’Oro (#11) and Audible (#5) on top because they both have decent positional speed if needed and should have dead aim in the stretch if good enough.  Hofburg (#9) is my long shot play to hit the board with a late run for Mott who is very high on this horse.  The play is #11 and #5 on top with 6,7,9 and 18 in the exotics.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 6, 8 and 5

Race 2: 2, 5 and 1

Race 3: 6 (Best Bet) with 4 and 5

Race 4: 9 with 3 and 2

Race 5: 5 with 8 and 9

Race 6: 5 (Best Bet) with 1 and 4

Race 7: 2, 6 and 1

Race 8: 7 (Best Bet) with 10 and 3

Race 9: 9, 10 and 11

Race 10: 12 (Best Bet) with 5 and 8

Race 11: 1 (Best Bet) with 3 and 7

Race 12: 11 & 5 with 6, 7, 9 and 18

Race 13: 6, 5 and 3

Race 14: 8, 6 and 7

Leave Comment