Archive for September 7th, 2017

Saratoga Humbles This Handicapper (9/7/17)

Sep 7th, 2017 | By | Category: Today's Picks

Since July 21st, Saratoga has been a very rude awakening for many handicappers around the country — especially this one! No matter how good we think we are and portray ourselves to our readers, family and friends, the statistics don’t lie.  So, over 40 cards and almost 400 races, the verdict is in.  This was not a Saratoga to remember and if you followed me throughout the meet, red was your primary color.  Only 5 out of the 40 cards had a positive ROI on win bets and only 10 had a positive ROI on best bets.   Here’s the quick summary:

Overall $2 Win Bets: 77/397 (20%) with a $266.20 loss on $794 investment (32.8%)

Overall Best Bet $2 Win Bets: 16/107 (15%) with a 97.20 loss on $214 investment (45%)

So, if you backed me on the win end and keyed best bets in your multi-race wagers, you got killed!  I was particularly disappointed in best bets because these win bets had been profitable all year and at Saratoga, best bets have to win more consistently because it’s hard to pick winners on top during the meet.  There was one profitable wager at the meet I would like to share.  If you played every best bet up and down in $2 exactas (a $3249 investment) you won $747 (23% return).  I did mention early in the meet that this bet started profitable because some long shots won races where my best bet ran second.  So, best bets may not have been profitable on top, but best bet races turned out to be very profitable if you took my advice early.

One more thing — on closing day, I went 4 for 10 overall with a nice flat profit, listed a $1445 pick 4 and a $2750 pick 5.  Something to build on I hope!  Not much more to say except thanks to everyone for all their comments and support — on to Belmont and then the Breeders Cup!