“Gunning” For A Derby Victory At Churchill (5/6/17)

May 6th, 2017 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks, Triple Crown

Sloppy and good for Derby Day at Churchill — there should be some additional showers today, but all races should remain on the turf and the track may dry out a little, but still be wet for the big race so play accordingly. I’ve noticed a pattern at Churchill when it’s wet — early in the day speed is really good on the dirt and later the closers can run if there is a decent pace.  I will try that strategy today and want to improve on yesterday’s picks when I only had 3 winners on top and my second choice won the Oaks at a big price, so let’s see how I do today!

In race 12, The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Gunnevera (#10) had absolutely no chance as the favorite in the Florida Derby with a moderate pace and wide post — he will be flying late today with a clean trip and a decent pace today and should handle the track.  If you can get 10-1, that would be an overlay in my mind, so I will be betting across the board and then playing exotics with #’s 5, 8, 15 and 20.  I will be using McCracken (#15) on top in some exotics as well, since he needed his last race and loves Churchill, so if either of my top two choices win, I could be in good shape.  Patch (#20) is my longshot play to hit the number – wish it wasn’t post 20, but the value will be there!!

In race 7, The Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, Roca Rojo (#6) loves a soft turf course and should be flying late to get the money as the second choice to Miss Temple City (#2) who may not be at best on this type of course — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 1 and 2.   Here’s the entire card and good luck to everyone!

Race 1: 3, 8 and 6

Race 2: 2, 6 and 4

Race 3: 3 (Best Bet) with 7 and 4

Race 4: 1, 6 and 5

Race 5: 1, 5 and 10

Race 6: 6, 7 and 2

Race 7: 6 (Best Bet) with 1 and 2

Race 8: 5 with 11 and 8

Race 9: 10, 7 and 4

Race 10: 8, 2 and 1

Race 11: 5 with 1 and 2

Race 12: 10 (Best Bet) with 15, 5, 20 and 8

Race 13: 9, 1 and 8

Race 14: 4, 14 and 11

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