Archive for October 31st, 2014

“Lady” Is No Tramp At The Breeders Cup (10/31/14)

Oct 31st, 2014 | By | Category: Breeders Cup, Today's Picks

Fast and firm for the most exciting two days in racing — looking forward to packed fields and difficult handicapping ahead, but with some smart betting and a little luck, there is money to be made.  Using last year’s experience at Santa Anita, here are a couple things to remember as you navigate these difficult cards:

  1. Be aware of another speed bias — last year on Friday, you had to be on the lead to win.  Saturday was better, but being close to the pace (especially on dirt) was a must.  Play accordingly if the bias returns this year and it is always a good idea to favor horses who have run well at Santa Anita in the past!
  2. Favor connections who know how to win Breeders Cup races — The great trainers and jockeys always show up on BC day!  Mike Smith is on a roll and you can always count on Baffert to find the winner’s circle.  While new faces can win, stick with the tried and true to maintain an advantage.  For example, in Juvenile Turf races, Aiden O’Brien and RL Moore are a great combination having won multiple times before.  War Envoy looks live in the Juvenile Turf!.
  3. Europeans can dominate on turf – our best turf horses are usually inferior to the European shippers and this year will be no exception.  However, the turf is so firm and hard this year because of the drought that some Euros may not like the footing!
  4. Be wary of NY & Keeneland horses who like to run from off the pace — if last year repeats itself, where horses like Princess of Sylmar had no chance, you shouldn’t expect good performances from Zivo and Tonalist in the Classic and Palace in the Sprint.  Also, there was a strong closer’s bias at Keeneland, so keep an eye on how the Keeneland shippers are running.   They might not be able to make up ground late here!!
  5. Avoid outside posts in turf races at a mile or over — the stats don’t lie.  It’s very difficult to win with outside posts at Santa Anita.  If you like horses breaking from difficult post, demand value because horses with inside posts at 1 or 1 1/16 miles have a distinct advantage!!

Here’s the Friday card and good luck!  Use today’s card as a great way to prepare for Saturday!!!

In race 8, The Juvenile Fillies Turf, Lady Eli (#4) has looked great in 2 starts for the best turf trainer in the country, has positional speed to get a perfect trip from a cozy inside post — key in all doubles a pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 2 and 3.

In race 5, Midnight Hawk (#2) cuts back to sprint should sit a good trip right behind the speed — a great warm-up race for Mike Smith.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 9 and 12.

In the Breeders Cup races (6-9),  Goldencents (race 7) and Untapable (race 9) look great, but will be short prices and I will try and beat them in the individual races, but keep them on my pick 4 tickets.  Lady Eli looks like a potential single on some pick 4 tickets!  Good luck everyone!

Race 1: 11, 7 and 8

Race 2: 9, 3 and 2

Race 3: 9, 7 and 4

Race 4: 11, 8 and 4

Race 5: 2 (Best Bet) with 9 and 12

Race 6: 11, 7 and 10

Race 7: 9, 8 and 1

Race 8: 4 (Best Bet) with 2 and 3

Race 9: 7, 10 and 11

Race 10: 6 with 2 and 7