Archive for April 2012

Living “Dangerously” At Belmont (4/29/12)

Apr 29th, 2012 | By | Category: Belmont, Today's Picks

Fast and firm for the Sunday card — as predicted, Saturday’s card was extremely difficult ( I did list 5 winners, but only 2 on top), so today is another challenge, but let’s see how I do.  By the way, I did have 5 winners on top at Churchill last night, and listed a $3400 pick 5 and a $1,000 pick 4 amongst other multi-race wagers.  I can’t wait for the Derby to get here!

In race 2, Dylan Dangerous (#11) ran well in debut for Rudy Rodriguez and adds blinkers for second start — should stalk a slow pace and get the job done against these.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 9 and 5.

In race 8, Nice Stuff (#7) was claimed by good first out trainer and will appreciate the 6 furlong distance on a local turf course where he has run well in the past — worth a play at 6-1 or better.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 9 and 4.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 4 with 1 and 6

Race 2: 11 (Best Bet) with 9 and 5

Race 3: 6 and 2

Race 4: 5 and 2

Race 5: 5, 7 and 11

Race 6: 5, 7 and 9

Race 7: 8, 4 and 1

Race 8: 7 (Best Bet) with 9 and 4

Race 9: 11, 5 and 2

Race 10: 11, 6 and 4



Being “Ruthless” At Churchill (4/28/12)

Apr 28th, 2012 | By | Category: Churchill, Today's Picks

Fast and firm the opening day at Churcill — only one week to the Derby and the excitement is building, so let’s see how I do today.

In race 10, Ruthless Empire (#2) had no shot in second turf start trying to close into a dawdling pace and his figures give him a big shot with a more contested pace in the cards — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 10 and 8.

In race 8, The Grade 3 Derby Trial, Hierro (#5) had big figure win at 7 furlongs on this track and has been working well on local surface and gets the right pace flow — key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 10 and 11.  Here’s the entire card now with scratches! — post time is at 6pm so I may make some changes later when scratches are announced so play accordingly!

Race 1: 5 (Best Bet) and 4

Race 2: 5 and 1

Race 3: 4, 3 and 5

Race 4: 6 with 3 and 5

Race 5: 2, 1 and 5

Race 6: 4 and 8

Race 7: 2, 3 and 6

Race 8: 5 (Best Bet) with 10 and 11

Race 9: 4 and 6

Race 10: 2 (Best Bet) with 10 and 8

Race 11:  7 with 9 and 2



A “Distorted” View At Belmont (4/28/12)

Apr 28th, 2012 | By | Category: Belmont, Today's Picks

Fast and firm for the Saturday card at Belmont — I have memories of having difficulties handicapping in the first week or so last year when they moved from Aqueduct to Belmont because the races weren’t easy to get a feel for and horses were shipping in from many different tracks.  I kind of get the same feeling today, but let’s see how I do.

In race 7, Distortionist (#7) had troubled debut on Gulfstream turf but still ran well — goes for great connections and seems ready to move forward against these.  Key in all doubles and pick 3′s and play an exacta box with #’s 3 and 10.

In race 1, Guyana Princess (#7) will be a decent price and gets a contested pace to set up late run — key in the double and pick 3 and play an exacta box with #’s 11 and 6.  Here’s the entire card and good luck!

Race 1: 7 (Best Bet) with 11 and 6

Race 2: 2 and 4

Race 3: 8, 5 and 4

Race 4: 6 and 3

Race 5: 1, 11 and 12

Race 6: 6, 8 and 1

Race 7: 7 (Best Bet) with 3 and 10

Race 8: 5, 7 and 9

Race 9: 2 and 6

Race 10: 2, 8 and 6



Keying On Keeneland Pays Dividends (4/23/12)

Apr 23rd, 2012 | By | Category: Today's Picks

The Spring meet at Keeneland is always one of the most challenging experiences a handicapper can have.  So, what’s the key to winning there — finding horses who like the local surface and placing bets on the connections that win there (e.g. Assmussen, Leparaux, etc.).  Using that strategy, here are my stats for the 7 cards I handicapped on weekends since opening day:

  • 21/70 (+$55.30: $2.79 ROI)
  • Best Bets: 5/12 (+10.80: $2.90 ROI)

In addition, I listed 9 pick 3′s (two over $600) and 3 pick 4′s worth $1,000, $3,000 and $5500 respectively.  I hope this bodes well for Churchill Downs and the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby.  Here’s to a successful Triple Crown handicapping season and thanks to all my friends and followers for a great year so far!