So yesterday’s 4th race at Belmont, The Fratello Ed, was shaping up to be a dream race. I’m on the phone, giving the race call to my friend Marty, and three horses(Wishful Tomcat, R Clear Victory and Future Prospect) are battling for the lead in this 1/16 mile race, through brutal fractions (45, 108.3). Surely, the favorite is going down and a closer is going to win this race and my brilliant handicapping will be rewarded with posting another winner. Then the dream became a nightmare — the pacesetters forgot to stop, Wishful Tomcat forged to victory, my closers (Dr. V’s Magic & Naughty New Yorker) were nowhere and Martin gave me his familiar words of encouragement…click!
Why relive the nightmare? Well, it seems that especially on Saturdays, Belmont’s main track becomes a super highway that loves speed and doesn’t play fair. It reminded me that if you are going to win at this game, and enjoy handicapping, you have to determine if there is a track bias and play accordingly. So, if you are going to play my horses, keep in mind that as a “race flow” handicapper, I typically look for closers when there is lots of speed. The Fratello Ed was a perfect example! Unfortunately, even a dream trip becomes a nightmare under those circumstances, so please “wake-up” and change your strategy if there is a bias. I promise to change my picks if that happens, so check the site!
By the way, had three winners on top at Belmont (thank goodness for turf) and listed 4 winners at Monmouth. Not great, but let me dream great!